2027: Can the return of Obi, Atiku’s runaway running mate, push PDP over the finish line?

Peter Obi, the Labour Party presidential candidate in the last election, has stirred a social media frenzy with what his close associates described as “private visits” to the former vice president and flag-bearer of the PDP in the last poll, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, and the ex-Jigawa state governor, Sule Lamido.

“It was my honour and privilege to host @PeterObi today,” Waziri Adamawa tweeted on his verified X handle on Monday.

Analysts believe that the visit could be a part of the major opposition parties’ broader and coordinated efforts to put aside their differences, unite behind a shared objective, and mobilise resources against President Bola Tinubu’s ruling All Progressives Congress in the 2027 general elections.

Atiku and Obi had worked closely in the 2019 election, where both clinched the presidential and vice presidential candidate tickets of the People’s Democratic Party against former President Muhammadu Buhari of the APC.

But four years later, the duo couldn’t replicate similar gestures and a cordial working relationship following the contentious emergence of Atiku Abubakar as the party’s candidate. In a way, Peter Obi, the former governor of Anambra, quickly decamped into the LP as his sanctuary of last resort, where he surprisingly garnered more than six million votes, winning Lagos in the process.

‘Handshake of Unity’

It is an open secret that the opposition PDP and Labour Party are in disarray. For example, they are both embroiled in a leadership crisis and a power tussle. Unfortunately, both Atiku and Obi have not succeeded in stemming the various existential tides threatening their respective parties.

Analysts contend that Obi’s visit, despite being ceremonial and more of a PR run, is not unexpected among notable politicians and that such may not translate into any tangible results in the long run.

“You have to look at the long run,” Mike Nnamdi, a political scientist at a federal university, noted. “2027 is not a sprint; it’s a marathon.” They posited that since Atiku’s last outing, he has been working behind the scenes to bring other disgruntled elements within the PDP’s umbrella.

However, others expressed a different view on the visit, noting that both Atiku and Obi are unpredictable, and any display of political camaraderie between the duo can only be taken at the surface and not at a deeper level. “Don’t take that warm handshake very seriously,” a political analyst, Wale Adekunle, said, “even the worst of politicians exchange pleasantries.”

‘Uniting Under Umbrella’

Founded in 1998, the opposition PDP ruled Nigeria for sixteen years before relinquishing over power to the APC in 2015. Since then, the party hasn’t sat in the country’s catbird seat. Observers believe the party’s main problem is unity, a course that Atiku Abubakar appeared to be championing.

“You have come here today to say that we should cooperate to promote democracy”, Atiku told the national executive committee of the Inter-Party Advisory Council of Nigeria in 2023, “But the truth of the matter is that our democracy is fast becoming a one-party system, and, of course, you know that when we have a one-party system, we should just forget about democracy.”

By the electoral act as amended, the former Vice President cannot stand in as VP for any candidate in future elections. Except Peter Obi gives away his aspirations, an unlikely scenario given the growth and strength of his movement. The implication of this is that, Atiku, is unlikely to let go of his Presidential ambition for any candidate. Again, the perception of Atiku in the Southern part of the country as an ethnic champion rather than an advocate of power rotation is also part of what may stand in his way in the next poll. Analysts posited that Atiku’s brightest chance was in the 2023 election but the division and polarization that rocked his party and ambition undermined his chances.