Nigeria’s politics is extremely fluid; nothing is impossible, every possible outcome is feasible. Nowhere is this more obvious than in Edo State. The last governorship election in the state saw a direct swap of candidates between the two major parties, with incumbent governor Godwin Obaseki standing for the PDP (despite winning election on the APC platform) and Osagie Ize-Iyamu representing the APC (despite challenging for the position four years back on the platform of the PDP).
A repeat of that intrigue is no longer in play, with Senator Monday Okphebolo winning the APC primary and Asue Ighodalo, a lawyer who is reportedly new to politics, winning the ticket of the PDP. But that doesn’t mean a dramatic twist isn’t in the offing. Governor Obaseki, who is keen on negotiating his succession, may be forced to mend fences and ally with his estranged predecessor, Senator Adams Oshiomhole, who did for him what he now attempts to do for Asue Ighodalo.
If that happens, it would be a fragile marriage of convenience, a familiar concept in Nigeria’s politics, especially in Edo State. Obaseki’s exit from the APC four years ago was due largely to his disagreement with his predecessor who was instrumental to his emergence. But if the rumor mills are to be believed, Oshiomhole, widely recognized as the leader of the APC in Edo State, maybe losing his grip on the party in the state. His rumored preferred candidate for the party, Dennis Idahosa, was defeated after a claiming a premature victory in a botched primary election that was set aside by the party’s National Working Committee.
The confirmed victory of Senator Monday Okpebholo, who is now decidedly the candidate of the APC for the election, is reported in several quarters as a trouncing of Oshiomhole by forces resisting his leadership in the state. This includes the state’s party chairman, Jarret Tenebe, and candidate in the last election, Osagie Ize-Iyamu, who tried to join the race this time but bowed out a day before the primary.
Okpebholo’s journey to the seat of power would certainly be complicated without the support of Oshiomhole, who remains widely popular in his home district of Edo North. But if he manages it, that may signal the end of Oshiomhole’s leadership of the party in the state. To prevent this, an option may be for the former governor to opt for an alliance with incumbent governor Obaseki, who is battling rebellion from his aggrieved deputy and is struggling to unite the PDP behind him.
The incentive for both parties is clear: Obaseki getting his preferred succession plan and Oshiomhole preventing his detractors from yet again obtaining state power and whittling his influence. But trust remains an issue. And for Oshiomhole, who is no stranger to political tussles of this sort, there is a potent fear that aligning with Obaseki may produce a worse outcome for him, as there is no guarantee that the governor’s preferred successor wouldn’t aim for the same outcome as his vocal detractors today: his political neutralization.
